Three & Out

This article attempts to put forth the “ideal” draft order one should use for fantasy football.  This will be a “summary” article, and in future pieces I’ll go more in depth on individual draft rounds, sharing additional reasoning and some hits and (major) misses from my drafts this year as examples.

Creating a one-size-fits-all guide is nearly impossible, however, due to the differences inherent in most leagues.  For instance, scoring often varies across leagues, as does the number of roster spots (both active players and bench players) one is allowed.  This advice is also mostly only of value in leagues that are performing live drafts, but I believe a clever pre-ranking could include these tactics (but let’s face it, live draft is the most fun a league can offer, other than winning the championship trophy/pot… oh and the gloating).

For the sake of finding common ground, I’m basing this draft order on the default league setting for ESPN and Yahoo!.  There are very few differences outside of the defense/special teams scoring, and even those are small.  The standard ESPN roster size is 16 to Yahoo!’s 15, and ESPN includes a flex (WR/RB) while Yahoo! defaults to third WR.  Whenever you’re drafting your team, please be sure to accommodate your league’s settings.  For instance, if your league gives 10 points to passing TDs or some such inflated number, you will want to give more weight to drafting a QB than the default scoring would indicate.

Without further ado, let’s get into the draft (we’ll assume we’re in a 12 team league – not so big that the waiver wire is trash).  Analysis/recommendations of players is based off consensus 2008 pre-season rankings.

Round 1
Here you need to go with a star RB.  A star RB is someone who is not stuck in a platoon where one week one back gets the lion’s share of the load, and the next week the other guy (or the other other guy) does.  Examples of these stud RBs include:  Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore.  We can use those secondary backs that have a defined role as RB2 (examples include Jerious Norwood, Derrick Ward, Felix Jones) if we must, but ideally we have two RBs that are getting over 15 carries per game.

Round 2
Depending on your draft order (1st and 12th present very different situations), and especially if you have a flex play in your league, you should go for another top-tier running back here.  A strong example of this would be Brandon Jacobs, Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner.  Granted if your second pick is the 13th or 14th overall, you can get higher quality, and if your second pick is 24th, it will be difficult to pass over a lot of tempting QBs or WRs, but I believe this is worthwhile, as I will address in future articles.

Round 3
This becomes a round where you really have to pay attention to who has already been taken, and have to get off auto pilot.  Rounds three through five or six will really shape your team depending on what positions you go after, which I’ll explore more thoroughly in future articles.  Another note is to be careful: if you’re reaching for Thomas Jones or Edgerrin James (pre Tim Hightower) in round two to get your second RB, you need to change plans.  I believe round three should be a “best of who is left” pick.  This sounds obvious at first, but rather it is saying, don’t be set on a position (in this case QB or WR – no other options), but take the best player left at one of those positions.  You’re sure to be getting a top 10 WR and probably a top five QB at this point.

Round 4
Here you’re getting the best player available that is the opposite position of what you picked in round four.

Round 5
This is a good round for another talented receiver.  What about a TE, K, or D/ST, you ask?  Those can wait, with a few exceptions.  If any of the elite TEs such as Jason Witten or Antonio Gates are still on the board, feel free to grab them now.  They produce as well or better than many WRs, and will fill your TE spot.  In no way consider a K or D/ST in the 5th (or even before the 7th) round.  If you have a flex position, consider another RB, depending on who is left (this is where we snag Thomas Jones or Edgerrin James).

Round 6
Grab another WR here, or another RB, depending on your 5th round pick.

Round 7
At this point, you should have a full starting lineup of 1 QB, 2/3 RBs and 2/3 WRs and possibly 1 TE.  In our 12 team league, we’ve burned through the top 72 players in the NFL.  It is probably a good round to fill the TE position, if you haven’t already.  If you have, grab a third WR here.

Round 8
Two options here.  Either reach for your D/ST here, knowing you’re probably overpaying to get a certain team you’re really going for, or start filling in backups.  I think a second QB in the 8th round will yield talent and comfort in dealing with bye weeks and injuries

Round 9
Feel free to grab your D/ST here.  If you selected them last round, this round you should draft your backup QB.  At this point, we should have:  2 QBs, 2/3 RBs, 2/3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST

Round 10
Secure a third RB or WR here.  This is where picks get a little more speculative – Matt Forte went at pick 100 in my league, and look at him now (Yes this is actually picks 120-132, I’m aware).  One thing to keep in mind is that on an average team, the end of the season roster will look very different from draft day, so taking a risk on someone with high upside (unless you’re passing up a known star) will rarely hurt you in the long run.

Round 11
Fourth WR

Round 12
Fifth WR

Round 13
Fourth RB, sixth WR

Round 14
Fourth RB, sixth WR

Round 15
Grab your K in your last round.  Don’t stress – Matt Prater went undrafted in my league, so there will always be a kicker to pull off waivers.

Post draft we have:
2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K = 15 players.

That wasn’t so bad, was it?  Next time we’ll use real world examples at different rounds from various leagues and see how we can make the most of each pick.