Three & Out

This will be the last time I dissect the entire round selections for my league.  I will touch on a few picks of my own I made in later rounds that worked out or didn’t, but after pick 70, one of two things happen: 1) picks tend to become highly speculative, and as such it is hard to say draw too many lessons from a gamble, whether it worked or not, or 2) depending on when draft day was, a player that was undrafted in August becomes a top 100 pick in September (confer Eddie Royal after 140+ yards in week 1).

57.         Laveranues Coles – ADP: 66.5 – In my mind Brett Farve was too much of a question mark to take Coles so high, and I believe this played out as such.  Coles (and Farve) had some good weeks, but was wholly too inconsistent to rely on as a top WR.  A stellar WR3 or above average WR2, but that isn’t who you want to draft with your 5th round selection.
58.         Tony Gonzalez – ADP: 52.1 – Of all the TEs to go early, Gonzalez proved that it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball, he will make things happen.  Led TEs in standard scoring formats by a wide margin, and should be the first to go next year, probably in the late third or early fourth round.
59.         Dwayne Bowe – ADP: 57.5 – Like Gonzalez, dealt with a handful of different QBs, but still got the job done.  If Mark Bradley or someone else steps up as a viable WR2 for KC, Bowe’s value will increase by seeing fewer double teams next year.
60.         Jeremy Shockey – ADP: 63.4 – Ooof, another example of a highly drafted TE flopping.  For all the times one would draft Gonzalez at a value, one will get a Kellen Winslow or Shockey with a fourth or fifth pick, which is why I vow to wait on my TE.
61.         Edgerrin James – ADP: 83.1 – Ok, I am the guilty party here.  I heard about Tim Hightower before the season started, but I waited so long to get my RB2 (with my TE foible last round), that I needed a starter, and none with a proven track record were available.  Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton were both available, but still unknown commodities at the time.  In the end, in worked out, I traded James for Thomas Jones, and he helped carry me into the playoffs.
62.         Hines Ward – ADP: 57.3 – Good value here, but Big Ben is not dishing out the TDs very often this year, which hinders Ward and Holmes.  Next year I imagine their ADP will drop, possibly producing some value picks if Ben’s shoulder heals over the off season and he starts slinging it again.
63.         Lee Evans – ADP: 60.1 – Was doing well for himself while Edwards was giving him the ball, but Losman just can’t be trusted, and Evan’s value suffered heavily as a result.  Perhaps he will become a mini-sleeper next season, offering a steal in the sixth or seventh round (one can hope).
64.         Dallas Clark – ADP: 55.3 – Clark was mostly silent the first half of the season, due to Peyton Manning being mostly silent, but things picked up rapidly in the second half, and Clark was the source of at least one loss for me this season in the critical late teens weeks of the season.  If Manning stays healthy, Clark is a good option for next year, especially with Marvin Harrison becoming a non-factor.
65.         San Diego – ADP: 64.1 – Though I wouldn’t draft a defense this high, SD was slated to be solid.  What a disappointment (however it was my friend who drafts his favorites, so oh well).
66.         Donovan McNabb – ADP: 54.8 – Good value here.  McNabb had a few rough weeks, but that is as much coaching as talent.  The Eagles’ receiver corps was in constant flux this year, so McNabb made the most of it.
67.         Joey Galloway – ADP: 82.3 – Even before his foot problems, this stunk of a poor reach.  Galloway was insignificant by week 4, and that shouldn’t change any next year.
68.         Chris Chambers – ADP: 63.7 – Another big disappointment here, but next year we’ll all know to go for Vincent Jackson – after all, Phillip Rivers has to throw all those touchdown passes to *someone*.
69.         Jerricho Cotchery – ADP: 81.2 – Same deal with Coles here; the Farve factor was a giant dark raincloud over Cotchery’s upside.
70.         Chester Taylor – ADP: 115.7 – Not sure about this one, Taylor is a flex play at best.

My additional picks, rounds 6 – 15:
(I will reiterate the caveat that most of these players ADP changed drastically depending on when draft day was)

80.         Patrick Crayton – ADP: 104.5 – I was hoping Tony Romo’s second WR would provide WR2 numbers for me.  Very wrong.
89.         Nate Burleson – ADP: 109.4 – I was stoked to land Burleson here (reached for him a little, it’s true), and the first game he rewarded me with over 15 points… and a trip to the IR.  Oh well, at least he proved a handy early season excuse.
108.       Seattle – ADP: 128.5 – Last year Seattle helped me get it done for my second place finish; who would have guessed they’d be the pathetic bunch they were this season?  I was very cursed when it came to DEF the whole season, frequently scoring < 5 points, when I wasn’t landing the occasional -1.
117.       Stephen Gostkowski – ADP: 87.7 – Great value here, and Gostkowski will finish the season close to or fully atop the league leaders in kickers.
136.       Patrick Willis – ADP: N/A – Tackling machine
145.       DeMeco Ryans – ADP: N/A – Had some good games, had some injuries.
164.       Matt Leinart – ADP: 123.2 – At least I didn’t waste a high round pick on him…
173.       Justin Fargas – ADP: 119.5 – Mr. Consistent… consistently provides ~7 points.
192.       Brian Urlacher – ADP: N/A
201.       Justin Gage – ADP: ? – Finally heated it up in the last few weeks of the season, long after I’d dropped him.  Even took him back at one point in the middle of the season, but by the time the playoffs rolled around, I had to go with my guys from all season.

One thing to note: of my round 6-15 players, only 3 of them were my starters at the end of the season (Gostkowski, Willis, Ryans), showing just how important waiver wire wonders are for propelling a team into the playoffs.  That, and dumb luck.