Three & Out

If things have gone well for you so far, then one of two things have happened.  Either you were able to snag two elite RBs and a QB/WR, or you may have an RB/QB/WR at this point.  As I proposed in my piece on the ideal draft, I believe the former to be the most desirable, but as I’ve shown, I wound up going with the later in my own draft.  I also mentioned that round 4 is a good time to go with the opposite player type (between QB and WR) than you did in round 3.  If you have RB/QB/WR at this point, you’ll want another RB/WR (preferably RB, before all the starters are off the board.

Of course, for myself, I ignored all of this and went with a TE.  Yes, I’m ashamed, yes it has cost me many points this year.  I have no excuse, and I deserve all I got.  My only reasoning was that in all the time I’ve been playing fantasy football, I’ve never had an elite tight end.  I’ve had top 10 or 15 TEs before, but never a top 3 or 5.  As such I’ve always somewhat despised the TE position – it never yielded me any points!  This year, I decided that perhaps it is not the TE position itself, but the TEs I’ve had, and with that in mind, I set about with an eye on a top 5 TE.

I still contend that only a few (less than 10) TEs will outproduce many WRs (top tier WRs, not pathetic team’s WR3s), and as such it is wiser to draft at least 2 high caliber WRs before going for a TE.  As I mentioned, TEs spend a good portion of their downs simply blocking for plays, so for most all teams they’re less likely to be as potent an offensive threat as the team’s number 1 or 2 WR.  Of course I went and got the injury/illness/horrible QB TE, who gave me one solid game of production… back to the TEs in the 7th+ round next year, mark my words!

43  Santonio Holmes – ADP:  43.1
44  Derek Anderson – ADP:  46.7 – Anderson proved to be very streaky last year, and while this isn’t a reach against the ADP, I feel the ADP was too high.  Of course hindsight is 20/20, but Anderson will mostly likely be a bottom 15 QB selection next year
45  Anquan Boldin – ADP:  38.2 – I said that Boldin’s teammate Fitz might be the number one receiver to go next year, but I believe Boldin could challenge him very strongly for that.  Love this pick as great value against the ADP, and who would have guessed that Warner would step up and deliver theTDs like Santa (with matching grey(ing) beards)
46  Jason Witten – ADP:  39.7 – Along with Gates, one of the acceptable early TEs.  Witten has not performed quite as well as expected this year, but only a handful of WRs taken after him have done too much better
47  Darren McFadden – ADP:  53.8 – Speculative reach, both against the ADP and whether or not his college performance would translate to the NFL level.  On the plus side, he still has the chance to be the featured back in a run first offense, on the downside, he’s already proven himself injury prone
48  Chris Cooley – ADP:  60.6 – One of the better TEs, though this is our friend who drafts his favorite players (Cooley being one due to his blog)
49  Greg Jennings – ADP:  44.8 – Consistently solid receiver, and Rodgers has stepped into fill some big shoes and keep the points coming Jennings’ way
50  Roy Williams – ADP:  41.8 – That Williams was drafted before his teammate Johnson surprises me, both in our league and the ADP
51  Thomas Jones – ADP:  84.7 – *
52  Kellen Winslow – ADP:  46.9 – Argh!
53  Marvin Harrison – ADP:  46.9 – Coming into the draft, I expected Harrison to fall to almost sleeper levels – coming off an injury, and getting up there in years, I expected him to fall somewhere in the 70-80s.  In retrospect, I’m sure most owners wish he had
54  Calvin Johnson – ADP:  48.8 – Megatron is Detroit’s lone shining star.  Imagine if this man had a competent QB throwing to him (though for a few weeks he did with Dan Orlovsky, who served as a great fill-in during Romo’s finger injury).  Except him to fly off the shelves quickly next year, especially if he is able to get himself traded
55  Roddy White – ADP:  54.7 – Matt Ryan has proved he can play with the big boys, and this only boosts White’s value
56  Earnest Graham – ADP:  79.5 – I’m not sure if I feel this was a reach, or if Graham’s ADP was too high.  I think a little of both.  Graham has found himself on the IR, but even before then, working in a timeshare with teammate Dunn does limit his overall value

*So, funny story here.  My friend drafts Jones in the 4th, which on draft day just seems like a Stretch Armstrong reach, coming off Jones’ season last year.  After a few games, Jones, and my next pick, Edgerrin James, have nearly identical production (or lack of).  Thomas is appearing a bust as a 4th rounder, and James as a 5th, but my friend dislikes the Jets, so he offered me Jones for James 1 to 1, just to not have any Jets on his team.  The next week James has the best week of his season (his only good one), and I’m thinking, darn, bad deal.  Then, Hightower becomes the man in ARI, and James is permanent bench warmer, while Jones comes out of nowhere and is suddenly leading the AFC in rushing.  And the worst part is: my friend was the lucky Tom Brady drafter in round 1.  Whoops.