Three & Out

Here we are in the first “best player” round.  Of course it is an obvious idiom that one should take the best player available in any round, but here we want to be mindful of our team’s current strengths.  If we already have two premiereRBs , then taking another in the third round (which is questionable as to whether there even are that many in the league period – I would contend maybe, but some of them will be unknown on draft day, and thus not going in the third or fourth round (Forte,Slaton, Johnson), unless the league is incredibly active on trades, is unwise.  Also, people will not want to trade a RB2 for a WR 1 most of the time, at least not straight up.  So if we’re strong on the ground, we go for the air, either throwing or catching, looking to snag the biggest star still available.

In a lot of ways, rounds 3-6 are the most crucial.  This does not mean you will draft your most productive players here, but that these picks are often more speculation and hunches, and much less “sure things,” so quality picks in these rounds, as well as mining the waiver wire for gems is what puts a team on top.  Yes an ‘07 Tom Brady nearly assures you a playoff spot, but there are rarely more than a few, if that many, each year, so it is in the depth of your roster that games are won or lost.  In coming installments, we’ll look at how my rounds 3-6 picks played barely over one full season’s worth of games between the four of them, and how I managed to work around that

29  Larry Fitzgerald – ADP: 23.4 – Fantastic pick here, both against the ADP, and snatching up one of the best/most consistent receivers, while ignoring the hype of such receivers as Chad Johnson.  I have a feeling that Fitz’s stock will only keep rising in next year’s draft, possibly going as the first overallWR in most leagues
30  Ronnie Brown – ADP: 63.6 – I like this pick as a speculative grab.  Brown probably would have lasted to the 4th round for this particular owner (their next pick coming at 55), but going into the draft I think many forgot that Brown was one of the most prolific/productiveRBs in the league last year before his injury.  He also proved that he is a quick healer, and has proved vital in turning around Miami’s sinking (sunken) ship of ‘07
31  T.J. Houshmandzadeh – ADP: 26.6 – Housh is a solid receiver, and Palmer was a great passer last year, so this pick feels solid
32  Jamal Lewis – ADP: 41.3 – Lewis is nothing is not consistent, however he tends to also be consistent about avoiding the end zone.  Not a bad RB2 choice, however
33  Marques Colston – ADP: 28.3 – Colston is the star receiver of a team with a pass oriented offense, and I like the value against ADP.  Certainly things turned out differently than expected with the injury, but if we could see the future, this game wouldn’t be much fun
34  Plaxico Burress – ADP: 32.5 – Manning Jr. was improving, and while he still has some Jekyll and Hyde to him, the top receiver of a great team is a valuable commodity
35  Michael Turner – ADP: 52.7 – Turner lived under the shadow of LT for so long, that his true potential as a featured back was a bit of acrap-shoot.  This reach against the ADP sure paid off, even if Turner is still very much a “matchups” player
36  Willie Parker – ADP: 50.6 – Three cheers for the man who scored as many TDs last year as I did, AND broke his leg in the fantasy playoffs.  I would not have touched him with a 10 foot drafting pole, and this feels like an even larger reach than the ADP suggests – I feel like that was high.  Yes he is the primary back and will get most of the carries, but if you do nothing with that fact (confer the entireBengel’s backfield this year), it isn’t worth anything.  Parker in the 5th sounds about right
37  Wes Welker – ADP: 35 – Our league is not PPR, but Welker becomes even more valuable (more so than nearly anyone) in that format
38  Torry Holt – ADP: 31.3 – He is the Rams number one wideout, and who knew they’d be *this* bad this year.  Good WR1 selection against the ADP.  I can’t see him going in the top 100 next year, however
39  Carson Palmer – ADP: 39.1 – Can’t argue with the ADP.  Coming off last year’s success, and with two top 50 WRs in Housh and Johnson, Palmer looked primed to pay off.  One of the good things about this is that this owner had the chance to pick up a solid RB or two and aWR already.  Of course, the whole elbow thing…  yah
40  Brandon Marshall – ADP: 32.7 – Great value here.  I think the one game suspension that could have been more scared people off just a bit, giving this owner a qualityWR 1 at the end of the 3rd.  As Cutler matures, Marshall will continue to be more valuable (though his second half performance this season has tailed off some)
41  Chad Johnson – ADP: 32 – What can (or needs to be) said about Ocho Cinco?  Maybe he’ll get back to form next year, but I would consider him a later round WR2 max
42  Antonio Gates – ADP: 35.7 – I am surprised a TE went so high (ADP) – granted only a handful are elite and regularly produce points, but this early on I think you have to go for a studWR and hope a relatively unknown TE will emerge during the season to bolster your ranks (Carlson, Keller).  More on this diatribe next round, when I reach for my TE

Most of the known commodity QBs and RBs are off the table by now, and plucking off the best WRs.  TEs are in the mix as well, and as I noted in my initial piece of drafting, I think this is too soon.  Even as a top TE, responsibility is split between receiving and blocking, whereas aWR is dedicated nearly solely to receiving (though this year passing and rushing has been somewhat popular).  I’ve already broken my rule of twoRBs first, and stay tuned for next round in which I take a TE… and kick myself all season long as a result.